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It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state. 

Abstract Biological organisms experience constantly changing environments, from sudden changes in physiology brought about by feeding, to the regular rising and setting of the Sun, to ecological changes over evolutionary timescales. Living organisms have evolved to thrive in this changing world but the general principles by which organisms shape and are shaped by time varying environments remain elusive. Our understanding is particularly poor in the intermediate regime with no separation of timescales, where the environment changes on the same timescale as the physiological or evolutionary response. Experiments to systematically characterize the response to dynamic environments are challenging since such environments are inherently high dimensional. This roadmap deals with the unique role played by time varying environments in biological phenomena across scales, from physiology to evolution, seeking to emphasize the commonalities and the challenges faced in this emerging area of research. 

Phylogenetic evidence suggests that the invasion and proliferation of retroelements, selfish mobile genetic elements that copy and paste themselves within a host genome, was one of the early evolutionary events in the emergence of eukaryotes. Here we test the effects of this event by determining the pressures retroelements exert on simple genomes. We transferred two retroelements, human LINE-1 and the bacterial group II intron Ll.LtrB, into bacteria, and find that both are functional and detrimental to growth. We find, surprisingly, that retroelement lethality and proliferation are enhanced by the ability to perform eukaryotic-like nonhomologous end-joining (NHEJ) DNA repair. We show that the only stable evolutionary consequence in simple cells is maintenance of retroelements in low numbers, suggesting how retrotransposition rates and costs in early eukaryotes could have been constrained to allow proliferation. Our results suggest that the interplay between NHEJ and retroelements may have played a fundamental and previously unappreciated role in facilitating the proliferation of retroelements, elements of which became the ancestors of the spliceosome components in eukaryotes.

 

Abstract In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed >1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university.